It is almost two weeks since Russia invaded Ukraine – two weeks since the world changed and two weeks of children sleeping in their beds or bunkers with the fear of being bombed. A number of myths about the decline of the rules-based international order have been shattered, and assessments of Russia’s military capabilities are looking increasingly shaky.
However, we must not let optimism cloud our judgment: we must be ready to commit to the long-term support of Ukraine.
Russia is now feeling the titanic force of the West’s economic muscle. If the collective intelligence assessment was so certain of the invasion, why were pre-emptive measures not introduced earlier?
This will be a challenge to the way in which our alliances operate, but there willbe time for reflection later. What matters now is maintaining a maximalist policy of sanctions and economic strikes to undermine the Russian ability to wage war and inflict atrocities on the innocent people of Ukraine.
The UK is now leading the western world in unleashing devastating sanctions on Putin’s war machine and regime. Russian banks have been blacklisted, oligarchs targeted, tech and industrial exports halted and direct flights to Russia suspended.
The prime minister, with the help of the Canadians, Dutch, the Baltics and the Scandinavian countries, has brought around the rest of Europe to exclude targeted Russian banks from the SWIFT messaging system.
The most important strike was however launched last Saturday, against the Russian central bank which I had been calling for. The UK, US and EU announced measures to target Russia’s central bank.
This targets the $630 billion stockpile of Russia’s foreign reserves, limiting its ability to support commercial banks, and shore up the rouble. The ramifications of this move are immense and coupled with the above list of measures are putting considerable pressure on the Russian elite.
A leaked FSB report predicts that the Russian economy will collapse by June – Putin may not care about the Russian people, but he cannot sustain an invasion on empty coffers.
And it is important that those coffers stay empty. Commodity sanctions are in the pipeline and we still need to sanction members of the Duma who supported this invasion.
There is also the energy market — one of the few untouched sectors — but this will cause a more severe shock to us all.
What the government must pursue, if we are to truly isolate Putin, is secondary sanctions against countries and entities willing to assist sanctioned Russian institutions. China, but also Pakistan’s growing economic relationship with Moscow, could be cause for concern and should be closely scrutinised.
The scale and unity of the western response has unnerved Putin and his kleptocrats.
Members of the Russian elite are starting to waiver, and several oligarchs including Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska have denounced the invasion, while the oligarch and former chief of the presidential administration, Anatoly Chubais, posted on Facebook an uncaptioned picture of prominent Russian opposition politician Boris Nemtsov, who was murdered outside the Kremlin in 2015 — the symbolism is clear.
Having coordinated the international effort, the UK is now beginning to dismantle the London rouble laundromat.
The Economic Crime Bill will increase financial transparency requirements for overseas entities that own land in the UK; and provide greater support for law enforcement agencies to utilise unexplained wealth orders by reducing financial liabilities of pursuing cases.
It can be used not only to tackle Putin’s dirty roubles, but also to strike against those advocating division and instability such as Dodik in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
However, increased funding for the National Crime Agency is needed to enforce the robust anti-corruption legislation, and we need to bring forward enforcement as quickly as possible, because that is the only way a maximalist sanctions policy secures maximum effect.
I welcome the Economic Crime Bill as a first important step in developing our domestic resilience capabilities. This needs to be done through combined measures, in the same spirit of coordination that international sanctions have been enacted.
The government must now bring forward counter hostile states legislation and dust the cobwebs off the 1351 Treason Act and Official Secrets Act.
Our maximalist policy will work, but it requires sustained effort and willpower on our part. We owe it to Ukraine to see this through.
Putin’s armies are violating ceasefire agreements to shell civilians and issuing absurdist peace demands: clear — if reprehensible — signs of weakness.
We must do everything in our power to limit and prevent bloodshed, and meaningful further economic strikes must be designed to prevent chemical weapons’ use.
To those fighting this evil, I say Slava Ukraini — to the rest of us, I say let us stand unwavering in our support for Ukraine’s heroes.
This article originally appeared in The Times on 8th March 2022
