We have now been in lockdown for six weeks and thanks to our collective effort to shield the NHS, we have avoided the heart-breaking scenes we saw where health systems were overwhelmed.
Thank you to each and every one of you. We are now past the peak and on the downward trend. This has not been without much loss and sacrifice, but it is a time for hope.
Next week, the Government will set out a comprehensive plan to get our economy moving again, children safely back to school, and return to a form of normality. This plan will be guided by the Government’s five tests and the science; crucially the R value.
The R value tracks how many people, on average, will be infected for every one person who has the disease. If R is higher than one, the virus will keep spreading to more and more people. For example; if the R value is two, and one hundred people were infected with COVID-19, they would go on to infect a further two hundred people and so on.
Our R value has fallen significantly since the lockdown was introduced. However, the worst thing we could do now is ease up too soon and let a second peak hit our communities and NHS. The R value could easily increase again, so it’s imperative that we make small adjustments at the right time.
If we are able to keep the R value falling, many of the Government’s five key tests will be met; our NHS will continue to be able to provide sufficient across the UK, the number of deaths from COVID-19 should fall and we should avoid a second peak.
We must not be disheartened. Reaching this point should drive us in this final lockdown push so our communities and economy can return to full health.
The pandemic has, no doubt, placed unparalleled pressure on our economy, but this week the Government has started negotiating a UK-US Free Trade Agreement (FTA), and the next few weeks will see over 100 UK negotiators taking part remotely.
The first round of negotiations is about establishing the game rules. We are looking for some big wins; to overturn a 40-year ban on British lamb in the USA, to reduce tariffs on British cheese, whiskey, cars and much more. We will stand by our farmers: agricultural standards are not up for grabs. We will walk away if we don’t get the deal we want.
The US has shown they want to do a deal with us and we’ve already had a success in the initial discussions: in July British beef will leave our harbours for the USA for the first time in 40 years.
This deal is important for our domestic security, for our local businesses, and to start to challenge certain unsavoury trade practices. Some 2,534 businesses in the East Midlands export the equivalent of £4,807 worth of goods per minute to the USA, and an FTA could see the East Midland’s economy grow by up to £298 million.
For now, we must look to the future with cautious optimism and trust that if we follow the best scientific and medical advice available, we will soon be reunited.
